Video recreation analysis agency DFC Intelligence has launched its latest report, spotlighting how the GTA 6 delay and the launch of the Switch 2 could impression the online game business’s fortunes this 12 months.
Starting with GTA 6, DFC mentioned the delay of GTA 6 from Fall 2025 to Could 2026 is “notably impactful” partially as a result of it was anticipated to assist raise gross sales of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Collection X|S in the course of the holidays. Learn on to see a full breakdown of what the DFC report mentioned about GTA 6, the Switch 2, and extra.
A “actual blow” to PS5
DFC’s David Cole informed Bloomberg that the GTA 6 delay is a “actual blow to the PS5” this 12 months partially as a result of the sport is predicted to persuade “shoppers to get off the PS4 and on to a PS5.”
GTA 6 can be anticipated to assist raise Xbox Collection X|S gross sales, and now that forecasted leap in {hardware} gross sales is predicted in 2026, not 2025. The impression of the delay out of 2025 is substantial, and never only for {hardware}.
Ampere Evaluation informed The Game Business that GTA 6’s delay has prompted the corporate to cut back its total gross sales quantity prediction for PS5 and Xbox Collection X|S in 2025 by 700,000 items. The corporate additionally forecast PlayStation and Xbox recreation gross sales to slip by 21 million items, with the full worldwide gaming business lacking out on $2.7 billion in income attributable to GTA 6’s delay.
“The drop is kind of vital,” Ampere’s Piers Harding-Rolls mentioned. “You’ll count on folks to spend on different issues [instead]. However that type of switch won’t be solely. There can be a major impression.”
GTA 6 is predicted to be a huge hit, with DFC beforehand predicting it could promote 40 million copies in its first 12 months. However now that it is delayed to 2026, DFC is projecting whole North American software program gross sales to say no 2% in comparison with 2024, with European software program gross sales staying flat year-over-year. DFC was beforehand forecasting a “good uptick” in share development for 2025, due partially to the arrival of GTA 6 and the debut of the Switch 2.
The brand new GTA 6 trailer was captured on a PS5 and featured a number of in-game references to PlayStation, prompting some to theorize that Sony could have a take care of Rockstar Games to advertise the sport. Any such monetary profit for Sony from a doable deal will seemingly now are available 2026, not 2025.
Switch 2 could be the “most necessary product launch” of all time in gaming
Nintendo’s new console stays on monitor for launch on June 5, and DFC mentioned it’s “arguably an important product launch in online game historical past.”
Not solely does DFC count on it to be the fastest-selling console system ever, nevertheless it has the potential to raise a online game business that has been grappling with product delays, rising prices, and financial uncertainty,” the agency mentioned.
In Japan, DFC predicted that the native market will see a 25% improve in console software program income in 2025 due partially to Nintendo “aggressively” pricing the console for the area. Nintendo beforehand introduced a cheaper, Japan-only model of the Switch 2.
Whereas PS5 and Xbox Collection X|S console gross sales could submit unfavorable development numbers for 2024, forecasted development in Japan thanks partially to the Switch 2 may assist the general international console market develop by 3% in 2025, DFC mentioned.
DFC additionally revised its unit-sales forecast for the Switch 2 in 2025, rising from 15 million to 16 million items. DFC mentioned Nintendo may promote as many as 20 million items in 2025 “if manufacturing may meet demand,” however DFC mentioned this can be “unlikely” attributable to Nintendo’s anticipated push to “take a conservative strategy to stock.”
For its half, Nintendo has formally forecast Switch 2 gross sales of 15 million items by the tip of March 2026, however DFC reminded everybody that Nintendo is understood to be conservative in its forecast. For example of this conservatism, DFC additionally reminds us that Nintendo forecast gross sales of 10 million items for the unique Switch’s first fiscal 12 months and went on to promote 15 million.
“Primarily based on that monitor report, the truth that Nintendo is forecasting a 15 million unit quantity offers us confidence that they are going to have the ability to ramp up provide and navigate tariff challenges,” DFC mentioned.
Relating to these tariff challenges, Nintendo just lately warned of “tens of billions” in potential unfavorable revenue impression attributable to tariffs. Nonetheless, Nintendo made this assumption based mostly on the tariff state of affairs in early April, and only recently, the US and China reached a deal at massively decrease tariff charges.
Trying additional out
DFC’s report additionally included further-out predictions for the place the gaming business could also be headed over the following 4-5 years. DFC mentioned demand stays sturdy for gaming, noting that when GTA 6 launches in Could 2026, it “ought to assist drive the business to additional heights.” From 2026-2029, DFC mentioned it is predicting that the online game business units “new {hardware} and software program gross sales data.”
“In the meantime, the Switch 2, together with the expansion of cell PC recreation gadgets, is redefining the panorama of the online game business. Nintendo can not be thought of as enjoying in its personal separate area. With the Switch 2, Nintendo is positioning itself as a central participant within the broader console and PC gaming ecosystem,” DFC mentioned.
For the Switch 2 particularly, DFC mentioned it is forecasting gross sales of 100 million items or extra by the tip of 2029, which might make it the “main console system by a large margin.”
“The subsequent few years may see Nintendo for the primary time changing into the first associate for third-party recreation publishers,” DFC mentioned.