Yearly, we flip to a panel of trusted analysts to ask them what they anticipate to see in the trade in the 12 months forward, and ask them to evaluate their predictions from the earlier 12 months.
This 12 months we have spoken to Kantan Video games’ Dr. Serkan Toto, Ampere Evaluation’ Piers Harding-Rolls and Newzoo’s Emmanuel (Manu) Rosier, and investor and co-chair of the UK Video games Council, Nick Button-Brown.
Manu Rosier, Director of Market Intelligence, Newzoo
2025 Predictions
GTA 6 will dominate the trade
Partially appropriate. Who would have thought that GTA 6 could be delayed twice?
Nintendo Change 2 might battle to outperform its predecessor
Too early to name. The Change 2 launched strongly on first-party titles, however nonetheless lacks a defining system-seller able to materially increasing the viewers. With out that inflection level, surpassing the unique Change’s distinctive trajectory stays unlikely.
Ubisoft: Acquisition, privatisation, or dismantling
Directionally appropriate. Ubisoft in the end averted acquisition, with its take care of Tencent going by means of in 2025 and reinforcing shareholder stability. Whereas this eliminated fast M&A uncertainty, it didn’t resolve underlying execution and cost-structure challenges, making the prediction directionally proper however overstated in its most excessive outcomes.
Fortnite takes on Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox
Appropriate. Fortnite continued its evolution right into a platform, with Unity recreation help clearly signaling Epic’s ecosystem ambitions. Alongside Roblox, it’s redefining how creation, distribution, and engagement intersect.
Weakening of huge live-service titles exterior of Fortnite and Minecraft
Partially appropriate. 2025 produced clear winners (ARC Raiders, Roblox, Battlefield 6) and losers (Name of Obligation) somewhat than a broad live-service collapse. In keeping with Newzoo’s knowledge, playtime share between F2P and premium video games remained steady, however engagement continues to pay attention round a small variety of dominant ecosystems.
No profitable new F2P multiplayer shooter launch in 2025
Largely appropriate: This was a detailed name: premium multiplayer shooters like Battlefield 6 and ARC Raiders broke by means of, whereas new F2P launches largely struggled. Delta Drive (December 2024) demonstrated that success continues to be potential, however solely with robust differentiation and disciplined expectations.
2026 Predictions
Valve will shock the trade with Half-Life 3
Valve will re-enter the highlight by formally revealing Half-Life 3, not as a nostalgia play however as a press release about the place high-end PC gaming is heading. The reveal can be as a lot about platform positioning and know-how management as it’s concerning the recreation itself.
GTA 6 can be delayed additional, triggering expectation fatigue
An additional delay of GTA 6 in 2026 would begin to check trade and investor endurance, shifting the narrative from confidence in Rockstar’s polish to considerations round scope and growth complexity. Extended anticipation would additionally introduce expectation fatigue, elevating the bar even larger and growing the chance that no launch can totally meet the load of its personal hype.
AI funding will quietly elevate the barrier to entry for gaming
AI funding will more and more soak up reminiscence, storage, and element capability, placing structural stress on gaming {hardware} availability and pricing. This can elevate the efficient entry bar for new gamers, and pressure builders to mood high-end technical ambition, as cutting-edge video games threat concentrating on an viewers that is just too small.
Steam Machine will launch however battle to search out an viewers
Adoption is prone to stay area of interest. Even when the machine is easy to make use of, console gamers will see little purpose to change with out clear exclusives or value benefits, whereas hardcore PC gamers will proceed to favor high-end rigs. With out “no-brainer” pricing, the worth proposition dangers falling into the center floor.
Change 2 will path Change 1 as growth slows
Change 2 gross sales will lag behind the unique Change because the pool of first-time Nintendo {hardware} patrons continues to shrink. Past restricted third-party pull, the rising maturity of transportable options comparable to Steam Deck and comparable PC handhelds is weakening Nintendo’s historic lock on cell play.
“An additional delay of GTA 6 in 2026 would begin to check trade and investor endurance, shifting the narrative from confidence in Rockstar’s polish to considerations round scope and growth complexity.”
Emmanuel (Manu) Rosier, Newzoo
Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO, Kantan Video games Inc
2025 Predictions
Xbox will open the floodgates and go all-in on PS5
Appropriate.
On the spot gaming could have its large second
Incorrect (thus far). The market for On the spot gaming, mini apps and HTML5 video games is already gigantic in China however not fairly there but in the West – though I’m nonetheless positive it will develop into actuality later.
Ubisoft will change radically
Appropriate.
Nintendo is not going to have sufficient consoles to promote
Incorrect in the US and Europe (by now) however nonetheless completely appropriate for the Japanese market even in late 2025.
2026 predictions
Microsoft will go all in on Change 2
Microsoft already launched and introduced a number of video games for Change 2, however I believe it is excessive time for them to totally help the platform going ahead. Aside from ports, I consider that we are going to see extra new Xbox blockbusters coming to Change 2 extra rapidly, and even on day one.
Sony can be challenged on cell
With MLB The Present Cellular, Ratchet & Clank: Ranger Rumble, and Horizon Metal Frontiers, Sony began an assault on the cell entrance in direction of the top of 2025 – which can go badly. Take the Horizon title, for occasion: How large is the viewers for an MMORPG primarily based on the Horizon franchise? Why was this title introduced for the PC, too, however not for PS5? I do perceive why Sony noticed the necessity to give cell a correct shot, nonetheless, and I additionally suppose they are going to proceed to crush it with their core PS5 enterprise in 2026.
Ubisoft can be in higher form
There are good the reason why Ubisoft has been taking a beating from the market over the past years and challenges nonetheless stay, however I believe the punishment has gone method too far now. In the present day, there are random cell gaming studios in the world which can be value greater than the French powerhouse. Folks overlook Ubisoft nonetheless has nice groups that simply produced new hit Murderer’s Creed and Anno video games, a powerful IP roster, a wealthy catalogue, Tencent’s backing, and a promising (not less than in my eyes) plan for restructuring.
“Aside from ports, I consider that we are going to see extra new Xbox blockbusters coming to Change 2 extra rapidly, and even on day one.”
Dr. Serkan Toto, Kantan Video games
Piers Harding-Rolls, Analysis Director and Head of Video games Analysis, Ampere Evaluation
2025 Predictions
Business layoffs to minimize
Appropriate. It hasn’t been nice in any respect – over 3,000 jobs misplaced in 2025 – however layoffs have slowed down in comparison with 2024.
Market progress to stay gradual
Appropriate. We’re at the moment forecasting 2.7% progress.
Change 2 releases in Q2 at minimal $400/€400, will promote slightly over 13m in 2025; growth of Nintendo Change On-line
Appropriate, appropriate, incorrect. Change 2 ought to promote over 15m by the top of the 12 months.
Consoles to be made exempt from tariff expenses
Incorrect
Improve in DTC initiatives by cell video games firms
Appropriate
Funding and M&A exercise choose up
Partially appropriate. General deal quantity is down, however worth is up vastly following the EA deal.
Content material predictions: Extra remakes and remasters; a number of extraction shooters to fail; Web3 resurgence; franchise construct outs; extra narrative pushed, culturally important, single-player titles
Appropriate, appropriate, incorrect, appropriate, appropriate.
2026 predictions
General market efficiency in 2026
I don’t anticipate there to be a significant deviation from the tendencies of the previous few years. Progress in 2025 sits in the 3-4% vary, much like 2024, with a considerable quantity of progress this 12 months coming from China, whereas the US market is flat. China outlook is slightly unpredictable – it has carried out higher than anticipated this 12 months – but when it continues its progress trajectory (largely pushed by cell video games and mini apps) alongside GTA 6 arriving, 2026 will ship progress once more and probably at an analogous degree.
“I’m not anticipating GTA 6 to be delayed once more and that ought to make sure the console market has an excellent 12 months.”
Piers Harding-Rolls, Ampere Analytics
I’m not anticipating GTA 6 to be delayed once more and that ought to make sure the console market has an excellent 12 months. Within the final couple of years subscription service value will increase have performed the exhausting work of sustaining the scale of the console market, however 2026 ought to see video games spending enhance once more. As predicted final 12 months, GTA VI would be the largest leisure launch of all time in phrases of income generated in its launch months. Different content material tendencies I anticipate in 2026: extra mid-priced high-production worth video games, narrative-focused titles primarily based on cultural heritage, and extra – probably too many – cosy titles. We’ll get extra experimentation with AI-driven gameplay, however these can be a sideshow somewhat than a important occasion. Cross-platform play and accounts – primarily cell and PC – will develop into extra prevalent particularly in Asian markets.
Steam Machine and Steam Deck 2
There may be rising anticipation for Valve’s subsequent iteration of the Steam Machine idea even when the worth level hasn’t been introduced but. This could translate into gross sales of some million models in its first 12 months regardless of the value. I wouldn’t be stunned if it outperforms what Steam Deck achieved throughout its launch cycle with the area of interest success of Valve’s present handheld translating right into a extra dedicated fanbase. Even so, these pitching this as a real console competitor are huge of the mark regardless that we’re clearly seeing a convergence of PC and console platforms to an extent. I’m anticipating a value level between $700-800 for a baseline version. On the flip facet I anticipate demand for the Steam Body to be considerably softer. The VR market isn’t about to show a nook in phrases of demand. What we’re seeing is Valve’s ecosystem develop into ever stronger, and I believe Steam Deck 2, or equal, can be introduced in 2026.
Cloud companies rising household play
Cloud gaming is at an attention-grabbing inflection level. Somewhat than give attention to the traits of the distribution tech itself to promote the product, Netflix and Amazon’s companies at the moment are squarely targeted on the informal, pick-up and play, household and celebration gaming viewers. This can drive extra mainstream use of cloud gaming from people who haven’t any consciousness of the tech getting used to ship the expertise. That may give cloud gaming a greater probability of changing into a extra significant contributor to the general market (at the moment it is lower than 0.5% of the entire).
This new aggressive entrance for the household and extra informal TV gamer is coalescing round these subscription companies and ad-hoc bits of {hardware}, just like the Nex Playground. Historical past tells us this viewers is tough to interact and drive significant spending from – Nintendo is rightly seen because the champion right here – however I predict that we’ll see a aggressive response throughout content material gives from numerous areas of the market together with Nintendo itself and competing cloud gaming companies that see related TVs as a key entry level.
“I do suppose PIF and Savvy Video games will stay lively in phrases of acquisitions. The tender energy facet to it will consequence in different states and governments reassessing their cultural methods and might even change their view of the video games sector”
Piers Harding-Rolls, Ampere Evaluation
Sports activities recreation initiatives can be large
2026 can be an enormous 12 months for the sports activities video games market, particularly soccer titles due to the World Cup. The cross-over between dwell sports activities, video games content material and audiences is rising. It’s no shock that EA was a beautiful acquisition to the PIF and US non-public fairness on the eve of the World Cup coming to the US. I anticipate extra convergence between the EA Sports activities FC viewers and dwell sports activities, whereas Netflix’s dwell sports activities push aligns strongly with its current FIFA recreation announcement, which is able to arrive in time for the World Cup. Whereas a lot of franchise growth speak is targeted on TV and movie diversifications of video games IP – which is able to proceed to develop in 2026 – the convergence of dwell sports activities and video games is an space to look at.
Established video games IP will get extra severe about UGC video games platforms
I anticipate there to be a rise in large video games IP – both as cross-overs with present experiences or standalone experiences – coming to Roblox and Fortnite in 2026. Whereas video games publishers have traditionally largely stayed away from Roblox, the size of the platform and its position can’t be ignored. As different manufacturers converge on Roblox, its promoting enterprise will develop strongly in 2026.
Affect from EA’s acquisition
I don’t anticipate this to be a catalyst for extra mega-acquisitions, not least as a result of there are few firms with the monetary clout to attain them. There are some distinctive points to this deal – particularly the sports activities dynamic and associated tender energy – which units it aside. I do suppose PIF and Savvy Video games will stay lively in phrases of acquisitions. The tender energy facet to it will consequence in different states and governments reassessing their cultural methods and might even change their view of the video games sector. China can be seeking to promote export of extra video games primarily based on its cultural heritage, to compete with Saudi Arabia’s rising affect.
Regulation means DTC initiatives will develop into commonplace
By the top of 2026, I believe most main cell video games publishers could have a DTC technique in place, however the impression on profitability of those initiatives will differ considerably between genres of video games and firms. People who put extra assets and effort into customisation of their DTC methods could have the most effective outcomes, however in change for extra industrial funding. Different regulation – particularly the social media ban for underneath 16s in Australia – will have an effect on recreation discovery channels, particularly if comparable insurance policies are adopted in different markets. That may strengthen these video games platforms that aren’t coated by the ban.
Nick Button-Brown, investor, Co-Chair of the UK Video Video games Council
2026 predictions
Extra funding coming into video games
I am not silly sufficient to foretell that the trade will flip round in 2026 (though I’m hopeful), however it is going to occur finally. Folks will wish to make investments to reap the benefits of that, so anticipate to see extra angel funding in firms that may be on the proper facet of the subsequent video games trade disruption. That features extra funding by publishers which can be going to wish their subsequent technology of content material, extra undertaking funding/UA funding by quite a lot of completely different firms getting into the house – and if you happen to’re in the UK, extra authorities help in the type of cash to the UK Video games Fund, in matching schemes, grants and total funding and help for the trade.
The “finish” of platforms
Consoles will after all endure, however I do see it mattering much less what platforms you make your video games on. I believe in 2026 we’ll see extra central experiences the place it would not matter the way you entry them, and perhaps extra platforms will get added to that ubiquity. When you make a adequate recreation it would not matter how your gamers entry it.
Extra co-op video games
I like co-op video games, and at a time when there are lots of people who’re feeling lonely, a cooperative collaborative recreation is an incredible strategy to join with pals. Whereas I am enjoying I find yourself speaking about deep and significant issues which can be vital in my pals lives, and actually admire that point with them. Most of my favorite gaming experiences in 2025 had been co-op – Break up Fiction, Lego Voyagers, Vampire Survivors and Arc Raiders – and it appears to be like like there are some superb video games coming for subsequent 12 months.
Extra ducking and diving
I’ve large admiration for the way in which folks have gotten by means of 2025, notably these firms which have discovered methods to make it work and make nice stuff occur. It nearly looks like we’ve got a technology of actual entrepreneurs who simply discover a method (though I am undoubtedly not choosing on people who did not, as a result of graft additionally wants luck). In 2026 anticipate to see these folks constructing new companies, discovering new methods of making a living, pulling in new income streams, discovering new communities to work with and new sorts of video games to make. Sure, it’s a must to be fortunate, however you too can give yourselves extra possibilities to be fortunate.