Since 2009, Call of Duty has topped the online game gross sales charts in the US virtually with out fail, solely torn down from its throne by Rockstar hits Purple Useless Redemption 2 and Grand Theft Auto V in their respective launch years. However now, a third contender is making ready to overthrow Rockstar and Activision’s domination of US avid gamers’ wallets: Hogwarts Legacy.
That is in accordance to Circana’s month-to-month report on US online game gross sales, which has Call of Duty: Trendy Warfare 2 because the best-selling recreation of November, however nonetheless solely the second best-selling recreation of the 12 months to date. It is presently being overwhelmed by Hogwarts Legacy, and on the charge issues are going, it is doable (although not assured) that is the way it’ll finish the 12 months. If Hogwarts Legacy tops the US charts for 2023, that will make this 12 months the primary time since 2008 that the primary spot wasn’t held by both Call of Duty, or a Rockstar recreation (2008’s finest vendor was Rock Band, per Circana).
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So, what’s taking place right here? Is Hogwarts Legacy simply promoting that properly, or is Call of Duty doing poorly this 12 months? The reply, in accordance to Circana analyst Mat Piscatella, is a bit of each. Talking to IGN, Piscatella affirms that Hogwarts Legacy’s efficiency has certainly been placing, and has been bolstered additional by the current launch of the Change model. The truth is, it was the second-best-selling recreation on the Change in greenback gross sales for November, trailing solely Tremendous Mario Bros. Marvel.
However then again, Trendy Warfare 3’s full recreation greenback gross sales are trailing Trendy Warfare 2’s from this time final 12 months due to a quantity of various factors, together with it launching a bit later in the 12 months. “It isn’t to say that Trendy Warfare 3 is doing poorly (it’s already the 2nd best-selling recreation of 2023 in spite of everything), however no it isn’t presently assembly what Trendy Warfare II did a 12 months in the past,” Piscatella concludes.
{Hardware} is seeing a large drop in 2023
Call of Duty is not the one factor in Circana’s report that does not seem to be doing in addition to ordinary. {Hardware} throughout the board dipped in November by 24% year-over-year, with all three present era consoles seeing declines of over 20% in greenback gross sales. The Change was the largest offender thanks to its age and rising anticipation of new {hardware}, however as ordinary, the total image is “a bit extra difficult than that” per Piscatella.
I will let him take the remainder of the reason:
As you will recall, final November was the primary that PS5 and Xbox Sequence noticed almost full out there provide. The pent-up demand that had been in place since these consoles launched lastly began being met final 12 months, and mainly each unit that discovered its approach to market offered. PlayStation 5 unit gross sales in November 2023, for instance, are greater than double the quantity seen in November 2021. So on a year-on-year foundation certain, it does not look nice. However pulling the lens again a bit, we’re nonetheless up towards the comp subject. However as a substitute of seeing big development as a result of we have been evaluating to a provide constrained market (like we noticed final 12 months), we’re seeing the reverse now, the place we’re evaluating to a interval of elevated provide and current demand getting satiated. This comp subject goes to be a problem in December as properly and can lastly begin settling out in January. Tl;dr – it is (in all probability) not as unhealthy because it appears to be like.
So {hardware} is unquestionably down, however the scenario is much from dire for anybody concerned, and can seemingly degree off early subsequent 12 months.
Since we’re right here, have another notable figures from Circana’s report. In software program, Tremendous Mario RPG remake debuted at No.7 on the power of bodily gross sales alone (Nintendo does not report digital gross sales), Naruto X Boruto: Final Ninja Storm Connections debuted at No.12, and Star Ocean: The Second Story R debuted at No.17. We additionally noticed God of Conflict: Ragnarok get a little enhance in the chart in November (presumably due to a good 50% Black Friday low cost), and Simply Dance 2024 equally leaped from No.73 in October to No.20 in November for seemingly the very same cause.
In {hardware}, the PlayStation 5 remains to be the best-selling {hardware} platform of 2023 in each items and greenback gross sales, adopted by the Change, although the Xbox Sequence took the quantity 2 spot for the month of November.
We can’t understand how the total 12 months has shaken out in all these classes till January, when Circana’s full 12 months report and evaluation comes by. And it is value noting that when Grand Theft Auto 6 comes out, we cannot understand how completely it trounces all of these different video games, since Take-Two Interactive not supplies the information obligatory for Circana to embody it in these charts anymore. So even when Hogwarts wins this 12 months, Call of Duty appears seemingly to go proper again to overwhelming Circana’s rankings once more in future years. Enterprise as ordinary.
Rebekah Valentine is a senior reporter for IGN. Received a story tip? Ship it to rvalentine@ign.com.