Join the GI Each day right here to get the most important information straight to your inbox
There have been hopes and expectations that Grand Theft Auto 6 would launch in 2024.
The one-two punch of the subsequent GTA and the anticipated launch of a brand new Nintendo console would have bolstered the worldwide games market in 2024, and ship a extra constructive yr in comparison with 2022’s decline (not less than in comparison with the COVID years) and 2023’s marginal development.
However, as we realized yesterday, GTA 6 will not launch on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Sequence X and S until 2025. Not that this has diminished expectations for a way nicely Rockstar’s blockbuster will carry out when it lastly arrives, in fact.
“Grand Theft Auto 6 will possible carry the expectation of being the most important leisure launch of all time when it’s launched,” Mat Piscatella, government director and video games trade analyst at Circana (previously NPD), tells GamesIndustry.biz. “The potential is definitely there, the one query is how excessive the ceiling is.”
Omdia’s senior principal analyst George Jijiashvili agrees, including: “It’s clear that Rockstar Games is poised to fulfill the sky-high expectations set for this eagerly awaited sequel… With such anticipation and Rockstar’s observe file, we count on GTA 6 to carry out exceptionally nicely upon launch in 2025, possible turning into one of many highest-selling games of the last decade.”
“Even in the best-case state of affairs, they received’t be capable of meaningfully enhance the whole market [in the same way as Grand Theft Auto 6]”
George Jijiashvili, Omdia
Jijiashvili emphasises that the wait until 2025 will not have a adverse impression on GTA 6’s gross sales. If something, he expects the alternative.
“Due to the mid-gen console launches in 2024, and extra current-gen consoles in the fingers of players total, Omdia forecasts an put in base of 142 million current-gen PlayStation and Xbox consoles by the top of 2025, up 26% over 2024.”
With 190 million items offered worldwide, one want solely have a look at the efficiency of GTA 5 to know the way nicely its long-awaited successor is more likely to carry out.
Trying on the UK market alone, GTA 5’s boxed gross sales of almost 9 million is considerably greater than double the lifetime gross sales of some other bodily launch. The sport additionally holds the file for the most important week one gross sales, taking £94 million in simply 5 days again in 2013 – the identical as GTA 4 managed throughout its complete lifecycle.
The above figures come from GfK’s senior perception shopper director Dorian Bloch, who says: “Take-Two has a knack of maximising gross sales on present platforms and by the point GTA 6 rolls round, we’ll be critical installs throughout PS5 and Xbox Sequence consoles. Plus a possible official console bundle at launch.
“I count on GTA 6 to simply beat the information set by GTA 5, with a mixture of digital direct gross sales (information that I don’t have entry to) and boxed. However even boxed gross sales will be dramatic and may beat some other boxed title launched over the previous few years.”
Bloch provides that the Vice Metropolis setting will assist, because the authentic 2002 PS2 recreation remains to be the third biggest-selling SKU in the sequence, overwhelmed solely by the Xbox 360 and PS3 variations of GTA 5.
The broader takeaway from GTA 6’s reveal, and particularly the launch window Rockstar is aiming for, is the potential impression on the remainder of the games market. Few titles may instantly have an effect on the efficiency of the worldwide trade by shifting from one yr into one other, however Grand Theft Auto is undeniably amongst them.
Jijiashvili confirms Omdia had anticipated GTA to reach in 2024, and the reveal of its 2025 launch will “negatively impression console market revenues [forecast] for the subsequent yr.”
Others are much less stunned, with Newzoo market analysts pointing to that $8 billion in web bookings that Take-Two forecast for fiscal 2025 earlier this yr.
“[This] led many to suppose that GTA 6 would launch in fiscal 2025, [but] Take-Two’s fiscal 2025 begins in April 2024 and ends in March 2025, so there have been already alerts pointing to a launch date in 2025.”
DFC Intelligence CEO David Cole provides: “Rockstar makes certain to take time to get [its games] proper. That’s the reason we’re extra assured it will be top quality than that it will launch on time. I believe some traders had been upset however it’s the proper transfer to take the time to launch a stable product.”
So and not using a new Grand Theft Auto to ship hundreds of thousands of gross sales and market development in 2024, what prospects does the trade have subsequent yr it will probably flip to as an alternative? Clearly, the line-up is not totally identified at this early stage – past the standard annual hits like Name of Responsibility and EA Sports activities FC, plus maybe a number of the bulletins from tomorrow’s The Recreation Awards – however proper now the discharge slate is, as Cole places it, “pretty naked.”
“The most important publishers like EA, Activision, and Microsoft are targeted extra on annual updates to current merchandise,” he says. “This leaves some Japanese publishers and Ubisoft being a number of the large ones for brand spanking new merchandise. We will see if Ubisoft can get its Prince of Persia and Star Wars titles out. After all, we would not be too stunned to see large information from Nintendo round new merchandise.”
Midia Analysis’s forecast and modelling analyst Perry Gresham provides: “It will be robust for 2024 to observe the spectacular launch yr that was 2023. We will nonetheless see a number of the 2023 main titles promoting by means of nicely in 2024 – reminiscent of Trendy Warfare 3, EA Sports activities FC and so forth – alongside a number of the key new releases, reminiscent of Closing Fantasy 7, Alone in the Darkish, Stalker 2, and Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024.”
Bloch notes that many main franchise additions are presently listed as ‘2024 TBC’, making it more durable to totally gauge how robust a line-up is in place subsequent yr. Along with Name of Responsibility and EA Sports activities FC, he cites Star Wars Outlaws and probably Dragon Age: Dreadwolf as promising releases, with hopes for a brand new Mario Kart and 3D Mario – and probably Pokémon – if Change 2 launches subsequent yr.
Piers Harding-Rolls, analysis director for games at Ampere Evaluation, notes that Grand Theft Auto will proceed to contribute to trade revenues even and not using a new launch.
“Let’s not overlook that GTA On-line continues on and there are recurrently round 20 million month-to-month gamers of GTA 5/On-line throughout PlayStation and Xbox consoles,” he says. “Additionally, whereas a share of console players would possibly save their cash until the launch of GTA 6, many will be completely satisfied to shift their spending onto different games coming in 2024 or onto their favorite stay service title.
“There is no such thing as a doubt that GTA 6 will be a {hardware} gross sales driver and a lift to full recreation gross sales, however I’m nonetheless constructive about subsequent yr’s console market.”
Jijiashvili provides that the Nintendo console launch, plus potential mid-gen refreshes for PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Sequence consoles, in addition to “the possible return of Fortnite to cell,” will all drive shopper spending.
“Even with the absence of GTA 6, we’ll possible proceed to see promotional presents on PS5 {hardware} as Sony hopes to develop PS5 penetration in markets they’re nonetheless behind gen-on-gen (particularly, in Western Europe). [We expect] PS5 Professional anticipated in late 2024, and with it being the primary full yr of PS5 Slim gross sales, Sony will probably have extra room for discounting to drive gross sales and upgrades.”
That stated, he acknowledges that at this second in time there’s a “a noticeable lack of massive titles slated for 2024 with ‘assured’ gross sales into tens of hundreds of thousands.”
“All over the place from Construct a Rocket Boy, [Game Science’s] Wukong Black Delusion, and stay service titles developed by Sony studios are our wild playing cards for 2024 – however we acknowledge that even in the best-case state of affairs, they received’t be capable of meaningfully enhance the whole market.”
Newzoo games market analyst Rhys Elliot places explicit emphasis on the anticipated Change 2, which he says will be a “a boon for 2024’s console revenues.”
“Gamers normally purchase software program to enrich their new machines,” he says. “Nintendo consoles in explicit usually launch robust with flagship franchises like Zelda and Mario to draw gamers to the platform early, and we count on the identical from its subsequent console.
“The potential for GTA 6 is definitely there, the one query is how excessive the ceiling is”
Mat Piscatella, Circana
“Nintendo has constructed up quite a lot of shopper goodwill throughout the Change era, and the Mario film has solidified the ability of Nintendo’s greatest IP. The Change successor is on observe to make fairly the splash, and Nintendo appears critical about bridging the hole between console generations greater than ever earlier than.”
Harding-Rolls provides that if Change 2 launches in 2024, it will “form market efficiency in direction of the top of the yr.” He provides: “The launch of GTA 6 is clearly an enormous cultural second, however a brand new Nintendo gadget coming to market takes it to the subsequent stage.”
Nevertheless, some are involved that even a brand new Nintendo launch would possibly not be sufficient to elevate 2024 above this yr’s market efficiency, with Circana’s Piscatella noting that the subsequent console would “must do a lot of the heavy lifting to maintain the console market at or close to its present stage.”
“Given the sheer variety of large new releases we have seen in 2023, even with new Nintendo {hardware} getting the market to comp to 2023 could show tough. If we do not see new Nintendo {hardware} in 2024, we might be double-digit proportion declines for the console market… adopted by a fair larger double-digit proportion improve in 2025.
“We might be fairly the curler coaster in the console market over the subsequent couple of years. The console market has seen these dips sometimes over its existence, however 2024 has the potential to be one of many larger ones.”
Midia’s senior games analyst and VP of information Karol Severin provides: “If we assume that GTA 6 was going to do not less than in addition to GTA 5 did, and that GTA 5 made someplace in the area of over $2 billion in its first yr, releasing in 2025 may ship the worldwide 2024 games buy figures (not together with in-game gross sales) into decline.
“Nevertheless, you will need to caveat that the worldwide games software program income (games purchases, in-game spending, and promoting) will nonetheless develop albeit extra slowly – lower than the speed of inflation in any case.”
Midia is presently reviewing its 2024 forecast and is anticipated to launch an replace in the approaching days.
Newzoo’s present forecasts are unaffected, though lead games analyst Tom Wijman explains that that is largely due to the actual fact the info agency does not issue in games with out an introduced launch date. Within the absence of GTA 6, Newzoo expects live-service games, significantly the rising portfolios of Sony and Microsoft, to spice up revenues in 2024.
“We are able to count on an inflow of high-profile live-service content material throughout 2024, 2025, and 2026,” Wijman says. “The console market dangers oversaturation, in half due to those methods. These dangers negatively impression alternatives for single publishers and builders, however we nonetheless count on the general marketplace for console games to develop due to it. In spite of everything, the highest live-service games monetise extraordinarily nicely, and with elevated competitors comes extra aggressive methods from the highest publishers.”
“GTA is such a phenomenon it will set off folks to purchase new consoles. It’d speed up this era’s development and put the market on a path to peak earlier”
Tom Wijman, Newzoo
He additionally notes that the tail finish of console generations are inclined to see a wholesome slate of giant blockbusters launched – and if it feels too early to be speaking concerning the tail finish of the present era.
Wijman factors out that 2026 will be six years after the launch of PS5 and Xbox Sequence X and S. That is the purpose at which Newzoo expects the set up base, content material, and subscription choices to have theoretically peaked. However GTA 6 may change that.
“As soon as GTA 6 is launched in 2025, that set up base will undoubtedly get one other enhance as a brand new GTA launch is such a phenomenon that it will set off folks to purchase new consoles,” Wijman explains. “It’d speed up the expansion of set up base for this era and put the market on a path to method a peak a bit earlier, say, across the holidays 2025 somewhat than in 2026.”
Join the GI Each day right here to get the most important information straight to your inbox