Game console shipments are expected to fall 19.5% this yr to 33.9 million units, in accordance to new knowledge.
A report from S&P World Market Intelligence Kagan attributes this decline to increased console costs, carried out to handle the continued RAM and storage disaster, which is making consoles much less reasonably priced for customers.
This decline reverses the features following final yr’s Nintendo Change 2 launch, which had elevated world console shipments by 13.5% to 42.1 million units.
S&P’s console forecast, compiled in July 2026, consists of solely dwelling gaming consoles from Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo.
The info agency tasks console shipments will fall to about 27.1 million units by 2027, with a gradual restoration to 37.4 million units by 2030.
“A crucial assumption underlying our forecast’s restoration interval later in the last decade is that the part disaster eases sufficiently by 2028 to enable Sony and Microsoft to deliver next-generation {hardware} to market at worth factors in the $600 to $800 vary,” stated S&P World Market Intelligence analyst Neil Barbour.
“For now, the market faces a compounding downside: {hardware} that’s both too previous or too costly for the median shopper, a software program slate that’s skinny outdoors a handful of tentpole releases, and a macro setting that retains any significant worth reduction off the desk.”
Nintendo Change 2
S&P forecasts Change 2 gross sales of 17.1 million units in 2026, comparable to the unique Change’s second-year efficiency and related to the Wii.
Nintendo’s newest full-year outcomes venture Change 2 gross sales will decline 16.9% to 16.5 million units in its second fiscal yr after launch.
Alongside a $50 worth improve impacting gross sales, S&P notes that “compounding issues is the shortage of a transparent software program tentpole in the close to time period,” because the main title Pokémon Wind and Waves won’t launch till late 2027.
PlayStation 5
In its sixth yr, PlayStation 5 shipped 17.1 million units throughout all fashions in 2025, a 15.2% lower year-on-year. S&P expects shipments to decline additional to 13.2 million in 2026.
Due to the continued RAM disaster, Sony elevated costs for all PS5 fashions in April 2026. The bottom PS5 rose from $550 to $650, the digital version from $500 to $600, and the Professional from $750 to $900.
Barbour famous these figures are difficult for customers contemplating a six-year-old gadget, and the hole between PS5 and PS4 gross sales is already damaging and widening.
He additionally questioned whether or not the extremely anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 shall be compelling sufficient to offset the upper worth, even with robust demand for suitable {hardware}.
“That framing doesn’t encourage confidence for 2027 or past. Our forecast fashions a possible PlayStation 6 launch in 2028, contributing 4 million units in its first yr and scaling to 17.2 million by 2030.”
Xbox Sequence X|S
Microsoft shipped 3.2 million Xbox Sequence X|S consoles final yr, marking the bottom annual complete on report. Quarterly shipments fell under 500,000 for the primary time in S&P’s dataset throughout Q1 2026.
S&P forecasts 2.5 million Xbox Sequence units offered in 2026, with “a fast wind-down towards zero thereafter.”
Barbour attributes this vital decline to “an uneven first-party software program library, a subscription-first technique that didn’t noticeably enhance {hardware} gross sales and pricing that now places an Xbox Sequence X $100 above a regular PS5.”
Xbox’s next-generation console, codenamed Challenge Helix, will help each Xbox and PC video games in addition to backwards compatibility, possible ensuing in a better worth level.
Barbour highlighted the chance that this method might restrict the console’s enchantment to “a narrower, extra enthusiast-oriented viewers.”
S&P predicts that the following Xbox console will promote roughly two million units in its launch yr, scaling to 7.3 million by 2030.
“The precise end result might look very totally different,” Barbour added. “A completely open PC platform with Xbox branding would not likely resemble a console and sure not be counted in this mannequin.
“Our forecast is functionally splitting the distinction between a correct Xbox successor and an Xbox-certification program with PC OEMs, and readers ought to deal with the post-2027 Microsoft trajectory as a variety of outcomes contingent on selections but to be made or revealed.”